The truth is I’m really bad at making predictions, but I think I’ll try my hand at prognostication. I think I might know what the next fad dog will be, and this time, it might not be as bad as the previous dog fads.
In the past few years, we have seen the rise of mass-produced tea-cup poodles, yorkies, Chihuhuas, and diminutive hybrids like the malti-poo. We have also seen the bulldog’s popularity increase, despite all of its various health problems.
What do all of these dogs have in common?
They are all good urban dogs. None of these breeds have very strong predatory behaviors, even though one can find individual dogs that exhibit some strong predatory behavior.
Border collies might be super easy to train, as are working strain golden retrievers, but they are also dogs with particular predatory motor patterns that they exhibit almost to the point of obsession.
My guess is the future of dogs will be heavily marked with popularity in more easily urbanized dogs. I mean people do prefer golden retrievers that don’t have their predatory motor patterns. I find them very different from the ones actually bred for those motor patterns.
So the breeds people will be keeping won’t be retrievers, collies, and shepherds. Those are so twentieth century.
After all, in the nineteenth century, the most common large breed was a dog called a “Newfoundland,” which could mean the big prototype to the Newfoundland we have today or the ancestral retriever. By the First World War, their popularity had waned, and the collie and German shepherd had come to the fore. By the 1960’s, these dogs began to loose ground to American cockers, who then lost ground to the golden and Labrador retrievers.
Now retrievers. standard poodles, and German shepherds remain popular, but they are the only larger breeds that consistently remain in the top ten of the AKC’ registrations. Smaller breeds continue to grow in popularity.
Some of this increase popularity comes from the rather obvious fact that they can be more easily milled than the larger breeds. They mature faster and start producing soon. ‘They can be stacked in tiny cages much more easily. And soft-headed celebrities buy them. Americans seem to do what soft-headed celebrities do, so they wind up buying even more mill fodder.
More people are buying dogs as child substitutes, and little dogs look like babies their entire lives. I highly suspect this transferance of parental behavior onto our population of diminutive canines is the main force that created the current epidemic of little dogs with behavior problems. Not only are many of these dogs born in terrible places, but they then are treated inappropriately their entire lives.
Mass production has exacerbated genetic problems in these little dogs. And if they are developing a reputation as poorly behaved dogs with lots of health problems, their fad status is probably tenuous.
What do I think the next fad dog will be?
Well, I try to be optimistic.
And I think we’re at a tipping point with purbred dogs. The public writ large is very aware of health problems in purebred dogs .
That’s why people are drawn to designer dogs.
But even the designer dogs aren’t always as carefully selected for health and temperament as people hope them to be.
So I see the future of the dog going something like this.
I think that in 25 years, the North American dog fancy will de decentralized. The closed registry system will not exist as it currently does, and dogs will be documented in registries that are purpose-based. Dog shows will probalby become little more than curiosities, where a few strains are still handled in the shows. But the big shows will have disappeared.
For pets, the public will look for dogs that are healthy and well socialized. Those performance based registries will probably steer pet owners away from their dogs.
That means that the “lowly mongrel” will once again become the pet of choice for the average family. The demand for these dogs has grown in recent years, even during the recession. As more and more of the public questions the legitimacy of the fancy as it currently exists, more of the public will be taking in randomly bred dogs.
I think society is finally becoming informed about what dogs are, and people want dogs to be much closer to the core considerations for the family. That means people will be looking for more healthy dogs, and they will be trepidatious of buying a dog from a breeder.
So as the eternal optimist, I think the next fad dog will be a “Canardly”– as in “I canardly tell what kind of dog he is!” (Yes, bad Kent Hovind joke.)
Unfortunatly I think the next fad dog could be an akita. There is a movie coming out soon that is the re-telling of the story of HachiKo. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hachik%C5%8D
Richard Gere is in it with a stunning akita. HOPEFULLY, like when “8 degrees” and the last 101 Dalmatian movies came out, the movie company will be proactive in making sure the public knows they aren’t a breed for everyone. I’m not holding my breath though.
While it IS a great story in some ways (showing the loyalty of a dog) I dislike that people use it as an example that all dogs of the breed are that loyal. Dogs are individuals. Yes they can be very bonded to only their owners and standoffish to strangers but I see that different than loyalty.
I have the original Japanese version (with english subtitles) on video. It will be interesting to see how they deal with the story in this time period.
I understand first hand where you’re coming from with your assessment. I have inquiries all the time about when I will breed my Flatties, but more inquiries about our hybrid. And I welcome those curious about our dogs to come and visit. And even after a visit it seems like 9 times out of ten when those visitors see our flatties and our hybrid they change their minds and prefer the hybrid. Nothing I say to sway them, they just make that determination for themselves. The people who come specifically for the hybrids do so because thats what they prefer over a purebred. They are very much on a plateau of thought that puts a hybrid in a better category than a purebred. Go figure.
Perhaps the day has already come where the mongrel, without a closed registry to ruin it, is in high demand? Seems like it. From my perspective, even in a time of recession there seems to be no end to people who want a dog. But, add to that dog something that makes it unique and you’ve got more people with a peaked interest. There doesn’t seem to be just a quest for a dog, but a dog that is different in a good way from all the rest. And from what my family is witness to almost on a daily basis, is a request for “that small golden retriever”. Of course we say no such thing, but that’s what they already have in their minds. So I guess some of these dog people who we encounter are looking for the small Retriever that fits their urban lifestyle? I can’t say that any retriever will. But that is what people seem to think, that smaller means better for their lifestyle.
As a proud, urban-dwelling Canardly owner, I’d love for your scenario to come to pass, but I’m a bit more pessimistic than you.
First, most people want puppies (unwisely, in my opinion), which means that they want to be able to predict what kind of adult it’s going to be. There are good reasons for this – I think the biggest reason for all those designer Poodle mixes is the fact that they’re low shedding, and not out of a desire for improved health. (If I’m not mistaken, the Australian Labradoodles/Golden Doodles were specifically bred to be low-shedding service dogs).
Second, given the continued prevalence of pet store puppies, I’m a bit more cynical about how far along the public has become about dog breeding and health. I think it’s more likely that we’ll define deviancy down to the point where there is a public ‘acceptance’ of crippling health problems as just another cost of dog ownership.
Last, I think the closed registry system is going to be harder to kill than you do. Besides ordinary bureaucratic inertia, there is a certain class/cultural exclusivity among breed clubs which will make it even harder to overcome. I just think back to the war of words between the USBCC and the AKC, and am trying to imagine how it would turn out when multiplied across all breeds. I get the distinct impression that a number of show breeders would truly prefer extinction to ‘contamination’.
What has me more optimistic is that these registries have lost some of their legitimacy. Granted, they are still powerful, but awareness of these issues is far greater than it once was. It’s likely that this awareness will increase.
Different dog people’s groups are becoming more and more skeptical of the closed registry system. If you have a working breed, you’ll want a more functions based standard and open gene pool. After all, inbred dogs aren’t that good as working dogs.
I meet more and more people who want a healthier dog. One that’s not suffering from unfulfilled working drives, and one that’s not dying at age 5 or 6.
So it’s a long way to go, but I think the process has been started. It’s going to be while before these effects take place, but I think this is where history is going.
I can only speak from my own firsthand observations and experience. Thats not to say its isn’t different elsewhere, but I’m not seeing an uneducated buyer in the majority of our clients. In fact they not only come to us knowing a bit about the Flat Coated Retriever, but also knowing the negatives of the AKC. The few who have come to us without experience with raising a puppy are very open to learning and as such we offer them all the help we can, provided they meet all our requirements for a good home environment for our pups. We actually interview all our clients in person and refuse to ship our pups anywhere. With the exception of our sister Kennels here in the US and overseas. Declining a family after even meeting them is brutal. But that’s the way it is sometimes, otherwise we’re being s irresponsible as those buyers who only think “non-shedding” or “very tiny”.
In fact we always ask as our own trick question “what puppy are you interested in”. We immediately decline the people who reply a golden female or anyone based on color and sex alone. If its based on color and sex before health and temperament its already a bad sign in our opinion.
You said:
…the public will look for dogs that are healthy and well socialized.
I think most of what you said is spot on. I am not sure that I agree they will be “mutts” though. Some breeders of today are tired of the kennel clubs and all they stand for. Mostly because good health and temperament are NOT promoted.
These same breeders of “pedigree” breeds are focusing more on health and temperament. I believe the next century will see the downfall of kennel clubs as we know them. I believe other clubs will start up and insist on health testing for starters and temperament evaluations… Or at least I hope this will come about.
I feel that we will start to see may breed for health and they will socialize their puppies for the average urban dwelling families. Mostly because the public is catching on and they won;t be taken for fools anymore. People are demanding a healthy, sane dog for their family and caring less about “purple Ribbon Bred”. Thank the gods for this.
Sheila
connemaraterrier.com